Palmeiras 2-2 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 22 Aug 2024

Palmeiras
2-2 HT 0-0
Botafogo
📅22/08/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2024

Palmeiras vs Botafogo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.82
Over 2.5
41%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.24
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.64
6+ Goals
11%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 34% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.22
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.2
X/1
14%
4.02
X/2
13%
9.65
X/X
17%
4.73
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
9%
7.61
2/X
6%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
54%
-9.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.6pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
51%
+8.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
49%
-8.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-8.2pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Palmeiras v Botafogo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 23%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.65/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.49
-17% / +77% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +49%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
20.5 Crosses 9.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 4.3

Palmeiras vs Botafogo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Botafogo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.84 xG 1.53
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
339 Passes 280
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
15.08.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 2-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU
18.07.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
02.11.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 3-4 HT 3-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
25.06.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
04.10.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 1-3 HT 1-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
10.06.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-0 HT 3-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1

Palmeiras 2-2 Botafogo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
2-2
AWAY Botafogo
2.75 xG 1.24
65% Ball Possession 35%
25 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 1
328 Passes 162
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
39 Box Touches 12
38 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras and Botafogo shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Palmeiras at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Palmeiras had 65% of the ball to Botafogo's 35%, shots finished 25-8, expected goals 2.75 to 1.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Palmeiras and 1.33 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Botafogo?

Palmeiras 2-2 Botafogo in the Copa Libertadores on 22/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 44%, draw 30%, Botafogo 27%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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