UD San Fernando 3-1 Villanovense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
20%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.44
Over 2.5
37%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.95
No
63%
1.35
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
21%
2/1
4%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
63%
-12.1pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.1pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+7.9pp
63%
Under 2.5
66%
-2.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
34%
+2.7pp
37%
BTTS Yes
30%
+6.8pp
63%
BTTS No
70%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD San Fernando EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Villanovense EU Bookmakers 15%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +103%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD San Fernando
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Villanovense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
6 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.12.2023 UD San Fernando UD San Fernando 2-0 HT 1-0 Villanovense Villanovense İS4
13.03.2022 UD San Fernando UD San Fernando 2-1 HT 0-0 Villanovense Villanovense İS4
24.10.2021 Villanovense Villanovense 2-0 HT 0-0 UD San Fernando UD San Fernando İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD San Fernando
3-1
AWAY Villanovense
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH UD San Fernando vs Villanovense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD San Fernando saw off Villanovense 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had UD San Fernando as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, UD San Fernando had 57% of the ball to Villanovense's 43%, shots finished 13-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, UD San Fernando had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for UD San Fernando and 1.00 for Villanovense.

What was the final score of UD San Fernando vs Villanovense?

UD San Fernando 3-1 Villanovense in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD San Fernando vs Villanovense?

Before kick-off our model rated a UD San Fernando win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split UD San Fernando 51%, draw 29%, Villanovense 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UD San Fernando) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (UD San Fernando) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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