Bayer Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg — Team-Based Signals
Bayer Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 1-1
Bayer Leverkusen
AL1
0-0
HT 0-0
Bayer Leverkusen
AL1
2-2
HT 1-1
Wolfsburg
AL1
0-2
HT 0-0
Bayer Leverkusen
AL1
0-2
HT 0-0
Wolfsburg
AL1
Bayer Leverkusen 4-3 Wolfsburg — Actual Match Statistics
Bayer Leverkusen squeezed past Wolfsburg 4-3. It was 2-3 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 79% of the ball to Wolfsburg's 21%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.94 to 0.71 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bayer Leverkusen's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.83 for Wolfsburg.
What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg?
Bayer Leverkusen 4-3 Wolfsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg?
Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 56%, draw 25%, Wolfsburg 19%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.