Stuttgart 5-1 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.41
No
43%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.75
2-3 Goals
41%
2.03
4-5 Goals
27%
2.62
6+ Goals
11%
6.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.97
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
5%
12.05
X/1
15%
5.51
X/2
14%
6.76
X/X
10%
5.78
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.3
2/2
14%
3.94
2/X
9%
12.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.9pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.5pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
67%
-9.3pp
43%
BTTS No
33%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -3%
1.72/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.87
+13% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
402 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 79%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
17.5 Crosses 16.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.96 xG 1.80
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
415 Passes 454
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0-1 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
06.12.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-0 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK
11.11.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-1 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
15.04.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-3 HT 0-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
22.10.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 5-0 HT 3-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
08.04.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 0-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
5-1
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
3.39 xG 0.66
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
419 Passes 391
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart cruised past Borussia Dortmund 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Stuttgart as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Stuttgart had 52% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 48%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 3.39 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stuttgart had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Stuttgart and 1.83 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

Stuttgart 5-1 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 43%, draw 23%, Borussia Dortmund 34%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stuttgart), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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