Genk 4-0 Dender EH — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
27%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.84
2-3 Goals
45%
1.93
4-5 Goals
20%
2.8
6+ Goals
10%
7.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.84 — our 25% vs market 15.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.84
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.6
X/1
18%
3.82
X/2
9%
12.1
X/X
6%
6.7
2/1
7%
20.25
2/2
11%
8.7
2/X
8%
17.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
62%
-10.9pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.5pp
27%
Away Win
17%
+9.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.1pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Dender EH EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +37%
2.21/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.14
+6% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +100% / +83%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
404 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 75%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
18.1 Crosses 12.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Dender EH
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
07.03.2009 Genk Genk 4-3 HT 1-0 Dender EH Dender EH BEL
18.10.2008 Dender EH Dender EH 2-4 HT 1-1 Genk Genk BEL
19.04.2008 Genk Genk 2-0 HT 0-0 Dender EH Dender EH BEL
02.12.2007 Dender EH Dender EH 2-0 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
4-0
AWAY Dender EH
2.34 xG 0.42
63% Ball Possession 37%
28 Total Shots 5
13 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
543 Passes 295
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
39 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Genk vs Dender EH
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk swept aside Dender EH 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Genk as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Genk had 63% of the ball to Dender EH's 37%, shots finished 28-5, expected goals 2.34 to 0.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Genk had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Genk and 1.75 for Dender EH.

What was the final score of Genk vs Dender EH?

Genk 4-0 Dender EH in the Belgium - Pro League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Dender EH?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Genk 52%, draw 22%, Dender EH 27%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genk), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Genk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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