Dinamo Brest 2-1 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.42
Draw
28%
4.34
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.1
Over 2.5
44%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
66%
-13.0pp
28%
Draw
20%
+8.2pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.6pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Brest EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk EU Bookmakers 17%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
2.60/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.35/1.94
+48% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -67% / -15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
412 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Brest
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.07.2024 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest 4-1 HT 2-1 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk BLRK
04.05.2024 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-2 HT 0-0 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Brest
2-1
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dinamo Brest vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Brest edged past Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Dinamo Brest as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dinamo Brest had 51% of the ball to Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk's 49%, shots finished 14-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Dinamo Brest had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Dinamo Brest and 0.50 for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk.

What was the final score of Dinamo Brest vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?

Dinamo Brest 2-1 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Brest vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Brest 53%, draw 28%, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Brest), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Brest) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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