Dnepr Mogilev 2-1 Smorgon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.99
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.9
6+ Goals
8%
17.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
8%
1/X
13%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.3pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dnepr Mogilev EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Smorgon EU Bookmakers 30%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.97/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/2.10
-30% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +58% / -38%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
298 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dnepr Mogilev
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Smorgon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
01.05.2024 Smorgon Smorgon 0-0 HT 0-0 Dnepr Mogilev Dnepr Mogilev BLR
26.07.2014 Smorgon Smorgon 0-2 HT 0-1 Dnepr Mogilev Dnepr Mogilev BLRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dnepr Mogilev
2-1
AWAY Smorgon
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Dnepr Mogilev vs Smorgon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dnepr Mogilev edged past Smorgon 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dnepr Mogilev as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dnepr Mogilev had 38% of the ball to Smorgon's 62%, shots finished 10-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Dnepr Mogilev had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dnepr Mogilev and 0.00 for Smorgon.

What was the final score of Dnepr Mogilev vs Smorgon?

Dnepr Mogilev 2-1 Smorgon in the Belarus - Premier League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dnepr Mogilev vs Smorgon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dnepr Mogilev win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Dnepr Mogilev 44%, draw 28%, Smorgon 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dnepr Mogilev), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dnepr Mogilev) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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