Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 Cienciano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-2.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.3pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.1pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Cienciano EU Bookmakers 36%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.22/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.33
-37% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 74%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
24.1 Crosses 20.5
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Cienciano
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.97 xG 1.36
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
218 Passes 249
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
20.04.2024 Cienciano Cienciano 0-2 HT 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
25.09.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 0-3 HT 0-1 Cienciano Cienciano PER
07.05.2023 Cienciano Cienciano 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
1-0
AWAY Cienciano
0.56 xG 1.38
26% Ball Possession 74%
9 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
89 Passes 357
57% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cienciano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Garcilaso nicked a narrow win over Cienciano 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Deportivo Garcilaso found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Deportivo Garcilaso had 26% of the ball to Cienciano's 74%, shots finished 9-18, expected goals 0.56 to 1.38 — on chances, Cienciano could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 1.00 for Cienciano.

What was the final score of Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cienciano?

Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 Cienciano in the Peru - Premier League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cienciano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Garcilaso win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Garcilaso 37%, draw 28%, Cienciano 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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