Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1-3 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 22 Sep 2024

Pari Nizhny Novgorod
1-3 HT 1-1
Lokomotiv Moscow
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✓
Russia - Premier League – 2025/2026

Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Lokomotiv Moscow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
5.91
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
65%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.21
Over 2.5
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.44
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.92
6+ Goals
14%
8.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
11.3
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
21.45
1/X
5%
19.25
X/1
5%
14.7
X/2
17%
3.6
X/X
9%
6.8
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
39%
1.68
2/X
6%
18.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.45 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
14%
+1.1pp
20%
Draw
20%
-0.2pp
65%
Away Win
66%
-0.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pari Nizhny Novgorod v Lokomotiv Moscow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pari Nizhny Novgorod EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 70%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
0.95/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/0.47
+43% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +13%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
270 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 459 · 84%
13.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
15.3 Crosses 16.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0

Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Lokomotiv Moscow Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pari Nizhny Novgorod
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.97 xG 1.62
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
188 Passes 412
66% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 35
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.04.2024 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 2-3 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
30.09.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
01.04.2023 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 0-4 HT 0-3 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
27.11.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-1 HT 2-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUK
31.08.2022 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 2-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
17.07.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 HT 0-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
POST-MATCH Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow saw off Pari Nizhny Novgorod 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pari Nizhny Novgorod and 2.00 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1-3 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Pari Nizhny Novgorod 15%, draw 20%, Lokomotiv Moscow 65%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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