Greenville Triumph 2-2 Central Valley Fuego — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.53
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.33
Over 2.5
48%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
61%
-15.8pp
28%
Draw
21%
+7.1pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
39%
+13.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
61%
-13.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greenville Triumph EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Central Valley Fuego EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -4%
1.77/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.66
-16% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -28%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
376 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 77%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
19.9 Crosses 17.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greenville Triumph
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Central Valley Fuego
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
1.46 xG 0.74
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
270 Passes 397
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.10.2023 Central Valley Fuego Central Valley Fuego 1-2 HT 0-0 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph USL1
18.06.2023 Central Valley Fuego Central Valley Fuego 0-1 HT 0-0 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph USL1
20.04.2023 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph 3-0 HT 2-0 Central Valley Fuego Central Valley Fuego USL1
10.07.2022 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph 1-0 HT 0-0 Central Valley Fuego Central Valley Fuego USL1
08.05.2022 Central Valley Fuego Central Valley Fuego 1-1 HT 1-0 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greenville Triumph
2-2
AWAY Central Valley Fuego
1.61 xG 0.37
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
311 Passes 215
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Greenville Triumph vs Central Valley Fuego
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greenville Triumph and Central Valley Fuego couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Greenville Triumph at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Greenville Triumph had 57% of the ball to Central Valley Fuego's 43%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.61 to 0.37.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Greenville Triumph had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Greenville Triumph and 0.40 for Central Valley Fuego.

What was the final score of Greenville Triumph vs Central Valley Fuego?

Greenville Triumph 2-2 Central Valley Fuego in the USA - USL League 1 on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greenville Triumph vs Central Valley Fuego?

Before kick-off our model rated a Greenville Triumph win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Greenville Triumph 45%, draw 28%, Central Valley Fuego 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Greenville Triumph), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Greenville Triumph) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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