Auda 3-2 Super Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 22 Sep 2025

📅22/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.33
Draw
19%
4.81
Away
20%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
23%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
71%
-9.7pp
19%
Draw
18%
+1.2pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+8.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+9.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-9.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.4pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auda EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Super Nova EU Bookmakers 15%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +17%
1.95/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/2.26
-29% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +21%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
412 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 71%
34.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
23.7 Crosses 12.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auda
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Super Nova
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.69 xG 0.42
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
482 Passes 217
85% Pass Accuracy 70%
37 Box Touches 14
32 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2025 Auda Auda 3-1 HT 0-0 Super Nova Super Nova LETK
01.07.2025 Super Nova Super Nova 0-1 HT 0-0 Auda Auda LET
11.05.2025 Super Nova Super Nova 1-1 HT 1-0 Auda Auda LET
16.03.2025 Auda Auda 1-0 HT 0-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
02.03.2024 Auda Auda 1-0 Super Nova Super Nova HAZ
02.09.2023 Auda Auda 1-0 HT 1-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auda
3-2
AWAY Super Nova
2.08 xG 1.09
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
430 Passes 274
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
41 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Auda vs Super Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auda nicked a narrow win over Super Nova 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Auda as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Auda had 59% of the ball to Super Nova's 41%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 2.08 to 1.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Auda had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Auda and 0.33 for Super Nova.

What was the final score of Auda vs Super Nova?

Auda 3-2 Super Nova in the Latvia - Virsliga on 22/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auda vs Super Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auda win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Auda 61%, draw 19%, Super Nova 20%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auda), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Auda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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