Crawley Town 3-0 Lincoln City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.91
Over
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No Pick
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.46
2-3
42%
1.79
4-5
23%
3.45
6+
11%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.46 — our 24% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.85
1/2
11%
24.85
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
12%
6.8
X/2
13%
4.72
X/X
6%
4.74
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.9
2/X
10%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
33%
Home Win
30%
+3.3pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.7pp
44%
Away Win
44%
+0.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.5pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crawley Town The Market 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Lincoln City The Market 48%
-8% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
0.34/2.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.25
-75% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +29%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
281 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 74%
12.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
18.1 Crosses 16.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crawley Town
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Lincoln City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
44% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
23.03.2019 Crawley Town Crawley Town 0-3 HT 0-1 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN2
08.09.2018 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-1 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
17.02.2018 Crawley Town Crawley Town 3-1 HT 1-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN2
28.10.2017 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-0 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crawley Town
3-0
AWAY Lincoln City
1.13 xG 0.85
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 10
239 Passes 298
68% Pass Accuracy 71%
8 Box Touches 28
5 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs Lincoln City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crawley Town swept aside Lincoln City 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lincoln City at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Crawley Town had 45% of the ball to Lincoln City's 55%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 1.13 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Crawley Town had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Crawley Town and 1.00 for Lincoln City.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs Lincoln City?

Crawley Town 3-0 Lincoln City in the England - 1st Division on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs Lincoln City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lincoln City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 33%, draw 23%, Lincoln City 44%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Lincoln City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lincoln City) ✓ BTTS No
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