Barry Town 3-2 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - League Cup, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.32
Draw
33%
3.35
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.8
Over 2.5
54%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.1
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
29%
3.77
6+ Goals
11%
16.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.77 — our 29% vs market 21.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
9%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
+0.8pp
33%
Draw
26%
+6.9pp
39%
Away Win
47%
-7.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.0pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barry Town EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 51%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / +3%
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
249 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barry Town
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Penybont
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.10.2024 Penybont Penybont 4-1 HT 0-1 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
29.03.2024 Barry Town Barry Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
10.02.2024 Penybont Penybont 2-2 HT 0-1 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
28.11.2023 Barry Town Barry Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
26.09.2023 Penybont Penybont 1-0 HT 1-0 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
11.02.2022 Barry Town Barry Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
POST-MATCH Barry Town vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barry Town nicked a narrow win over Penybont 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 27% / 33% / 39% — and on the day Barry Town made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Barry Town and 1.33 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Barry Town vs Penybont?

Barry Town 3-2 Penybont in the Wales - League Cup on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barry Town vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated an Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Barry Town 27%, draw 33%, Penybont 39%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Penybont) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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