Penybont 4-1 Barry Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.95
Over 2.5
34%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
1.88
No
64%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
3.54
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
15%
3.38
6+ Goals
7%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 38% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-7.9pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.9pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.0pp
66%
Under 2.5
48%
+18.7pp
34%
Over 2.5
52%
-18.7pp
36%
BTTS Yes
49%
-12.9pp
64%
BTTS No
51%
+12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Barry Town EU Bookmakers 20%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +11%
1.94/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.96
-1% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
335 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Barry Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
29.03.2024 Barry Town Barry Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
10.02.2024 Penybont Penybont 2-2 HT 0-1 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
28.11.2023 Barry Town Barry Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
26.09.2023 Penybont Penybont 1-0 HT 1-0 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
11.02.2022 Barry Town Barry Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
04.02.2022 Penybont Penybont 4-0 HT 1-0 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penybont
4-1
AWAY Barry Town
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Barry Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont ran out comfortable winners over Barry Town 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Penybont had 51% of the ball to Barry Town's 49%, shots finished 16-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Penybont and 0.50 for Barry Town.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Barry Town?

Penybont 4-1 Barry Town in the Wales - Premier League on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Barry Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Penybont 53%, draw 29%, Barry Town 18%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GAL More Wales - Premier League
4 Oct 2024
21:45 Bala Town vs Haverfordwest County Analysis →
21:45 Newtown vs Flint Town United Analysis →
21:45 Connahs Quay vs Aberystwyth Town Analysis →