Connahs Quay 1-2 Aberystwyth Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - League Cup, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.29
Draw
23%
4.95
Away
24%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.27
No
52%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.12
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
3.05
6+ Goals
12%
9.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
73%
-20.6pp
23%
Draw
17%
+5.7pp
24%
Away Win
10%
+15.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
40%
+8.2pp
52%
BTTS No
60%
-8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberystwyth Town EU Bookmakers 12%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +52% / +52%
2.65/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.48
-14% / +86% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +92% / +101%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
418 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Connahs Quay
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Aberystwyth Town
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.10.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-0 HT 2-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
16.08.2024 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
06.10.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
18.08.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 4-0 HT 4-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
20.12.2022 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-0 HT 1-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
16.09.2022 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
POST-MATCH Connahs Quay vs Aberystwyth Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberystwyth Town squeezed past Connahs Quay 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Connahs Quay at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Connahs Quay and 0.67 for Aberystwyth Town.

What was the final score of Connahs Quay vs Aberystwyth Town?

Connahs Quay 1-2 Aberystwyth Town in the Wales - League Cup on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Connahs Quay vs Aberystwyth Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Connahs Quay 53%, draw 23%, Aberystwyth Town 24%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Connahs Quay), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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