Real Madrid U19 1-2 Borussia Dortmund U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA - Youth League, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.53
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
17%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.96
Over 2.5
55%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
6.96
2-3 Goals
35%
2.19
4-5 Goals
33%
2.47
6+ Goals
8%
4.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
61%
-3.0pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.7pp
17%
Away Win
19%
-1.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
30%
+14.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
70%
-14.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-8.8pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid U19 EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund U19 EU Bookmakers 22%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
1.36/0.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/3.33
-38% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -44%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
395 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 80%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
26.0 Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid U19
1-2
AWAY Borussia Dortmund U19
2.58 xG 1.25
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
403 Passes 197
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Real Madrid U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund U19 squeezed past Real Madrid U19 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Real Madrid U19 at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Real Madrid U19 had 64% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund U19's 36%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 2.58 to 1.25 — the balance of chances actually favoured Real Madrid U19.

What was the final score of Real Madrid U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19?

Real Madrid U19 1-2 Borussia Dortmund U19 in the UEFA - Youth League on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid U19 58%, draw 25%, Borussia Dortmund U19 17%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Real Madrid U19) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid U19) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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