Perth Glory 1-3 Western United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 22 Nov 2024

📅22/11/2024 · 🕒09:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
49%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
4.5
2-3 Goals
46%
1.91
4-5 Goals
23%
2.96
6+ Goals
8%
8.68
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.5 — our 23% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
6.0
1/2
8%
21.25
1/X
8%
14.7
X/1 EV+ ✗
18%
8.65
X/2
11%
4.33
X/X
11%
5.88
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
29%
2.32
2/X
4%
14.3
Value flag · X/1 at 8.65 — our 18% vs market 8.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+4.1pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.7pp
49%
Away Win
52%
-3.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.0pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Western United EU Bookmakers 56%
+14% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.16/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.94/0.81
+28% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +24%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
241 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 80%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
16.5 Crosses 33.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perth Glory
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Western United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.26 xG 2.22
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
398 Passes 413
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 33
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.04.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 3-4 HT 1-1 Western United Western United AVUS
02.03.2024 Western United Western United 1-0 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
29.04.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-2 HT 1-1 Western United Western United AVUS
04.03.2023 Western United Western United 2-1 HT 2-1 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
10.12.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-1 HT 1-0 Western United Western United AVUS
16.04.2022 Western United Western United 6-0 HT 4-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perth Glory
1-3
AWAY Western United
1.11 xG 2.40
33% Ball Possession 67%
15 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 9
223 Passes 558
73% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 33
19 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Perth Glory vs Western United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western United got the better of Perth Glory 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Western United as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Perth Glory had 33% of the ball to Western United's 67%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.11 to 2.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Western United led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Perth Glory and 2.67 for Western United.

What was the final score of Perth Glory vs Western United?

Perth Glory 1-3 Western United in the Australia - A-League on 22/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perth Glory vs Western United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Western United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Perth Glory 29%, draw 23%, Western United 49%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Western United), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Western United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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