Istra 1961 2-3 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 22 Nov 2024

📅22/11/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.7
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
4.44
6+ Goals
10%
23.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
12%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-5.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.3pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 26%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -14%
1.46/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.26
+8% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
312 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 69%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
17.2 Crosses 17.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Istra 1961
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.05 xG 0.61
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
302 Passes 290
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
26.04.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 3-0 HT 3-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
16.02.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-1 HT 0-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
05.11.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-0 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
19.08.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-2 HT 2-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
27.05.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-1 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Istra 1961
2-3
AWAY Slaven Belupo
0.52 xG 2.01
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
262 Passes 301
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Istra 1961 vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slaven Belupo edged past Istra 1961 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Istra 1961 at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Istra 1961 had 48% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 52%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.52 to 2.01 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Slaven Belupo's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Istra 1961 had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Istra 1961 and 0.67 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of Istra 1961 vs Slaven Belupo?

Istra 1961 2-3 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 22/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Istra 1961 vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Istra 1961 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Istra 1961 46%, draw 29%, Slaven Belupo 25%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Istra 1961) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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