Slaven Belupo 0-1 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.23
6+ Goals
9%
20.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
11%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
36%
+4.8pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.5pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 39%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
1.18/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.04
+22% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
271 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 73%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
17.8 Crosses 15.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Istra 1961
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.83 xG 1.05
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
265 Passes 335
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
26.04.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 3-0 HT 3-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
16.02.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-1 HT 0-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
05.11.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-0 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
19.08.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-2 HT 2-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
27.05.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-1 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
31.03.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-0 HT 1-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
0-1
AWAY Istra 1961
0.52 xG 0.80
58% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
353 Passes 246
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 9
25 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Istra 1961 squeezed past Slaven Belupo 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Slaven Belupo at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 58% of the ball to Istra 1961's 42%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.52 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Istra 1961 led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Slaven Belupo and 1.50 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961?

Slaven Belupo 0-1 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated a Slaven Belupo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 41%, draw 27%, Istra 1961 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Slaven Belupo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Slaven Belupo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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