Hajduk Split 1-0 Osijek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
31%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.1
Over 2.5
46%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
4.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.1
6+ Goals
9%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.04 — our 30% vs market 19.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
56%
-13.6pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.9pp
30%
Away Win
21%
+9.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.2pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Osijek EU Bookmakers 24%
-6% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.46/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.69
+5% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
353 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
19.1 Crosses 15.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Osijek
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.51 xG 0.92
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
298 Passes 295
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.04.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-2 HT 1-2 Osijek Osijek HIR
03.02.2024 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
08.11.2023 Osijek Osijek 0-1 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
22.10.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 0-2 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
13.05.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-0 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
12.03.2023 Osijek Osijek 0-2 HT 0-2 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
1-0
AWAY Osijek
1.11 xG 0.14
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
307 Passes 320
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 10
14 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs Osijek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hajduk Split edged past Osijek 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Hajduk Split as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 49% of the ball to Osijek's 51%, shots finished 11-4, expected goals 1.11 to 0.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hajduk Split and 0.83 for Osijek.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs Osijek?

Hajduk Split 1-0 Osijek in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs Osijek?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 42%, draw 27%, Osijek 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hajduk Split), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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