Guadalajara 1-2 Atlas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 22 Nov 2024

Guadalajara
1-2 HT 0-0
Atlas
📅22/11/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Guadalajara vs Atlas Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.59
Over 2.5
41%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.47
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
4.94
6+ Goals
10%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.6
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.85
X/1
15%
3.93
X/2
11%
7.98
X/X
17%
4.16
2/1
9%
29.0
2/2
10%
6.91
2/X
7%
16.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.4pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Guadalajara v Atlas — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlas EU Bookmakers 26%
-4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -11%
1.43/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.29
-7% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 73%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
21.1 Crosses 17.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5

Guadalajara vs Atlas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atlas
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.45 xG 1.41
55% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
298 Passes 234
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
06.10.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-3 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
28.04.2024 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
08.10.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 4-1 HT 1-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
15.05.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
12.05.2023 Atlas Atlas 1-0 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
02.04.2023 Atlas Atlas 3-3 HT 2-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK

Guadalajara 1-2 Atlas — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
1-2
AWAY Atlas
2.01 xG 1.69
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
353 Passes 204
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Atlas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlas squeezed past Guadalajara 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Guadalajara at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guadalajara had 61% of the ball to Atlas's 39%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.01 to 1.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Guadalajara and 1.33 for Atlas.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Atlas?

Guadalajara 1-2 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 22/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Atlas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 45%, draw 28%, Atlas 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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