Guadalajara 2-3 Atlas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.59
Over 2.5
45%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
4.85
6+ Goals
8%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
52%
-1.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.9pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.7pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlas EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -9%
1.48/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.46
-7% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +6%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 72%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
20.7 Crosses 16.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Atlas
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.49 xG 1.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
294 Passes 258
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
28.04.2024 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
08.10.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 4-1 HT 1-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
15.05.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
12.05.2023 Atlas Atlas 1-0 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
02.04.2023 Atlas Atlas 3-3 HT 2-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
14.08.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
2-3
AWAY Atlas
1.15 xG 1.29
71% Ball Possession 29%
20 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
378 Passes 100
82% Pass Accuracy 54%
35 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Atlas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlas nicked a narrow win over Guadalajara 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Guadalajara at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guadalajara had 71% of the ball to Atlas's 29%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 1.15 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Guadalajara and 1.00 for Atlas.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Atlas?

Guadalajara 2-3 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Atlas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 51%, draw 27%, Atlas 22%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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