Toluca 1-1 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 6 Oct 2024

Toluca
1-1 HT 1-1
Pumas UNAM
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Toluca vs Pumas UNAM Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
21%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.03
Over 2.5
44%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.61
No
56%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.89
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
3.16
6+ Goals
10%
10.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.89 — our 31% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
5%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
47%
+2.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.5pp
21%
Away Win
27%
-6.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
45%
+10.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
55%
-10.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
58%
-14.0pp
56%
BTTS No
42%
+14.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toluca v Pumas UNAM — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 31%
+4% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +15%
1.66/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.53
+25% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +0%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
334 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 74%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
17.1 Crosses 16.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0

Toluca vs Pumas UNAM Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.48 xG 1.99
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
385 Passes 264
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
18.03.2024 Toluca Toluca 3-0 HT 2-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
19.08.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
16.04.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-1 HT 3-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
11.09.2022 Toluca Toluca 2-2 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
11.01.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 5-0 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
22.11.2021 Toluca Toluca 1-2 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK

Toluca 1-1 Pumas UNAM — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
1-1
AWAY Pumas UNAM
0.50 xG 1.18
65% Ball Possession 35%
11 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
472 Passes 237
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 11
16 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Toluca vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca and Pumas UNAM couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Toluca at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Toluca had 65% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 35%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.50 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Toluca and 2.17 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Toluca vs Pumas UNAM?

Toluca 1-1 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Toluca 50%, draw 29%, Pumas UNAM 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Toluca), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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