TransMara Sugar 0-1 KCB Nairobi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 22 Nov 2025

📅22/11/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.47
Draw
32%
2.66
Away
38%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
Over 2.5
31%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.44
No
60%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
20%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
37%
-6.9pp
32%
Draw
34%
-2.0pp
38%
Away Win
29%
+8.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
37%
+3.0pp
60%
BTTS No
63%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TransMara Sugar EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY KCB Nairobi EU Bookmakers 32%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
1.06/0.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.01
+16% / +96% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
272 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TransMara Sugar
0W-1D-1L
AWAY KCB Nairobi
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
19.04.2025 TransMara Sugar TransMara Sugar 1-1 HT 0-1 KCB Nairobi KCB Nairobi KEN
21.12.2024 KCB Nairobi KCB Nairobi 4-3 HT 2-1 TransMara Sugar TransMara Sugar KEN
POST-MATCH TransMara Sugar vs KCB Nairobi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KCB Nairobi edged past TransMara Sugar 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (30% / 32% / 38%) promised a tight game; KCB Nairobi found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, KCB Nairobi led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for TransMara Sugar and 2.50 for KCB Nairobi.

What was the final score of TransMara Sugar vs KCB Nairobi?

TransMara Sugar 0-1 KCB Nairobi in the Kenya - Premier League on 22/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TransMara Sugar vs KCB Nairobi?

Before kick-off our model rated an KCB Nairobi win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split TransMara Sugar 30%, draw 32%, KCB Nairobi 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KCB Nairobi), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (KCB Nairobi) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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