Gor Mahia 1-0 Tusker — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 22 Nov 2025

📅22/11/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.0
Draw
26%
2.88
Away
37%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
Over 2.5
31%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.51
No
63%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
12%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
46%
-8.5pp
26%
Draw
31%
-5.3pp
37%
Away Win
23%
+13.8pp
37%
BTTS Yes
36%
+1.7pp
63%
BTTS No
64%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gor Mahia EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Tusker EU Bookmakers 26%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +25% / +25%
1.58/0.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/0.28
+39% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +150%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
326 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gor Mahia
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Tusker
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.02.2025 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Tusker Tusker KEN
19.01.2025 Tusker Tusker 2-1 HT 0-0 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia KEN
20.01.2024 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Tusker Tusker KEN
09.04.2022 Tusker Tusker 0-0 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia KEN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gor Mahia
1-0
AWAY Tusker
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gor Mahia vs Tusker
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gor Mahia squeezed past Tusker 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Gor Mahia made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Gor Mahia had 52% of the ball to Tusker's 48%, shots finished 12-6.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Gor Mahia and 0.50 for Tusker.

What was the final score of Gor Mahia vs Tusker?

Gor Mahia 1-0 Tusker in the Kenya - Premier League on 22/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gor Mahia vs Tusker?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gor Mahia win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Gor Mahia 37%, draw 26%, Tusker 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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