Wolfsburg 1-3 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 22 Dec 2024

📅22/12/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.31
2-3 Goals
37%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
2.84
6+ Goals
13%
8.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.47
1/2
8%
23.0
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
10%
6.89
X/2
14%
5.05
X/X
13%
5.46
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
30.0
2/2
19%
2.9
2/X
5%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
42%
Away Win
44%
-1.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.1pp
47%
BTTS No
39%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 48%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -4%
1.43/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.45
-6% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -5%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
305 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 407 · 81%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
17.9 Crosses 15.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolfsburg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.51 xG 2.26
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
289 Passes 510
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
29.10.2024 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK
17.02.2024 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
23.09.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
07.05.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 6-0 HT 3-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
08.11.2022 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
16.04.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 6-1 HT 5-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolfsburg
1-3
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.50 xG 2.84
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
362 Passes 407
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
39 Box Touches 29
30 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund got the better of Wolfsburg 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Wolfsburg had 50% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 50%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.50 to 2.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Wolfsburg and 2.33 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?

Wolfsburg 1-3 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Wolfsburg 33%, draw 25%, Borussia Dortmund 42%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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