Wolfsburg 1-0 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 29 Oct 2024

📅29/10/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.47
2-3 Goals
37%
2.01
4-5 Goals
26%
2.66
6+ Goals
14%
6.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.4
1/2
10%
21.85
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
12%
7.26
X/2
16%
5.19
X/X
8%
5.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
28.5
2/2
17%
2.75
2/X
8%
12.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
31%
+3.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
42%
Away Win
44%
-2.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.2pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 48%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +30% / +30%
0.84/3.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/1.06
-2% / -57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +150%
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
306 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 399 · 79%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
24.0 Crosses 13.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolfsburg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.62 xG 2.35
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
277 Passes 497
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.02.2024 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
23.09.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
07.05.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 6-0 HT 3-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
08.11.2022 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
16.04.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 6-1 HT 5-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
27.11.2021 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-3 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolfsburg
1-0
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.31 xG 1.73
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
367 Passes 547
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wolfsburg nicked a narrow win over Borussia Dortmund 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Borussia Dortmund at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Wolfsburg had 42% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 58%, shots finished 16-18, expected goals 1.31 to 1.73 — on chances, Borussia Dortmund could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Wolfsburg and 2.83 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?

Wolfsburg 1-0 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - DFB Cup on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Wolfsburg 34%, draw 24%, Borussia Dortmund 42%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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