Köln 3-0 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 29 Oct 2024

Köln
3-0 HT 1-0
Holstein Kiel
📅29/10/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - DFB Cup – 2024/2025

Köln vs Holstein Kiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.38
Over 2.5
63%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.55
No
42%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.07
2-3 Goals
38%
1.96
4-5 Goals
28%
2.74
6+ Goals
15%
7.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.17
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1
20%
4.32
X/2
7%
9.3
X/X
9%
6.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.3
2/2
14%
6.23
2/X
7%
14.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.3 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-3.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.2pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+3.5pp
37%
Under 2.5
38%
-0.7pp
63%
Over 2.5
62%
+0.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.0pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Köln v Holstein Kiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Köln EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 26%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
2.13/0.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.61
-52% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -78% / +150%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
386 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 74%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
29.0 Crosses 17.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.5

Köln vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Köln
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
2.50 xG 0.76
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
342 Passes 334
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.05.2021 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-5 HT 1-4 Köln Köln AL1P
26.05.2021 Köln Köln 0-1 HT 0-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL1P
31.03.2019 Köln Köln 4-0 HT 2-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
20.10.2018 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-1 HT 0-1 Köln Köln AL2

Köln 3-0 Holstein Kiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Köln
3-0
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.68 xG 0.71
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
289 Passes 438
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 31
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Köln vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Köln cruised past Holstein Kiel 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Köln as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (63%) landed while both teams to score (58%) missed.

On the day, Köln had 41% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 59%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.68 to 0.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Köln had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Köln and 0.75 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Köln vs Holstein Kiel?

Köln 3-0 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - DFB Cup on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Köln vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Köln 50%, draw 24%, Holstein Kiel 27%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Köln), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Köln) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AFK More Germany - DFB Cup
29 Oct 2024
20:00 Augsburg vs Schalke 04 Analysis →
20:00 RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli Analysis →
20:00 Kickers Offenbach vs Karlsruher SC Analysis →
20:00 Bayer Leverkusen vs Elversberg Analysis →
22:45 Stuttgart vs Kaiserslautern Analysis →
22:45 Jahn Regensburg vs Greuther Fürth Analysis →