RB Leipzig 4-2 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 29 Oct 2024

📅29/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
30%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
1.95
Over 2.5
63%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.81
No
35%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
3.57
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.36
6+ Goals
16%
12.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.36 — our 28% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.09
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.45
X/1
14%
3.98
X/2
11%
10.4
X/X
9%
5.09
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
23.6
2/2
13%
8.07
2/X
7%
15.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 13% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
57%
-11.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
29%
Away Win
19%
+10.3pp
37%
Under 2.5
48%
-10.9pp
63%
Over 2.5
52%
+10.9pp
65%
BTTS Yes
51%
+14.1pp
35%
BTTS No
49%
-14.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 22%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
2.09/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/2.10
-17% / +131% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
405 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 73%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
12.0 Crosses 12.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 4.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
1W-1D-3L
AWAY St. Pauli
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
0.66 xG 1.38
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
410 Passes 188
76% Pass Accuracy 60%
14 Box Touches 41
13 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-0 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
12.02.2016 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL2
23.08.2015 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 0-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
03.05.2015 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL2
23.11.2014 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-1 HT 2-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
4-2
AWAY St. Pauli
1.72 xG 0.59
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
470 Passes 530
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 29
7 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig got the better of St. Pauli 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had RB Leipzig as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (65%) came in.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 47% of the ball to St. Pauli's 53%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.72 to 0.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, St. Pauli led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for RB Leipzig and 0.80 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli?

RB Leipzig 4-2 St. Pauli in the Germany - DFB Cup on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 45%, draw 25%, St. Pauli 29%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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