Benfica 1-0 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 22 Dec 2025

Benfica
1-0 HT 1-0
Famalicao
📅22/12/2025 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Benfica vs Famalicao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.42
Draw
18%
4.34
Away
15%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.95
No
46%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.8
2-3 Goals
43%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.12
6+ Goals
10%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.71
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
18.2
X/1
23%
3.87
X/2
5%
14.65
X/X
6%
6.46
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.7
2/2
4%
12.6
2/X
5%
21.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
67%
+0.7pp
18%
Draw
20%
-1.9pp
14%
Away Win
13%
+1.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.7pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Benfica v Famalicao — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 16%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
2.13/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/2.40
+24% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
442 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
32.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
21.1 Crosses 14.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Benfica vs Famalicao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Famalicao
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.04 xG 0.75
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
470 Passes 267
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.01.2025 Benfica Benfica 4-0 HT 2-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
11.08.2024 Famalicao Famalicao 2-0 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POR
05.05.2024 Famalicao Famalicao 2-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
29.12.2023 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
25.11.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-0 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POK
04.03.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-0 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR

Benfica 1-0 Famalicao — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
1-0
AWAY Famalicao
1.28 xG 0.21
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
443 Passes 362
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica nicked a narrow win over Famalicao 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Benfica had 55% of the ball to Famalicao's 45%, shots finished 10-4, expected goals 1.28 to 0.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Benfica and 0.67 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Famalicao?

Benfica 1-0 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 22/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Benfica 67%, draw 18%, Famalicao 14%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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