İran 2-1 Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Asian Cup, 23 Jan 2024

İran
2-1 HT 1-0
Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri
📅23/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Asian Cup – 2023

İran vs Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
17%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.59
Over 2.5
51%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.33
No
56%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.46
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
4.92
6+ Goals
10%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.0
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
3%
18.55
X/1 EV+ ✗
30%
3.38
X/2
3%
11.7
X/X
15%
4.36
2/1
4%
29.5
2/2
10%
11.0
2/X
6%
19.9
Value flag · X/1 at 3.38 — our 30% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
60%
+0.2pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.2pp
17%
Away Win
15%
+2.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
59%
-10.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
41%
+10.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
39%
+5.5pp
56%
BTTS No
61%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

İran v Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İran EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri EU Bookmakers 18%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.30/0.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.41/1.25
-5% / -84% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / +0%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
415 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

İran vs Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İran
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.67 xG 0.78
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
253 Passes 456
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.02.2022 İran İran 1-0 HT 1-0 Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri DKE
07.10.2021 Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri 0-1 HT 0-0 İran İran DKE
19.01.2015 İran İran 1-0 HT 0-0 Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri ASK
19.01.2011 Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri 0-3 HT 0-0 İran İran ASK
10.06.2009 İran İran 1-0 HT 0-0 Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri DKE
19.11.2008 Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri 1-1 HT 1-0 İran İran DKE

İran 2-1 Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İran
2-1
AWAY Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri
2.35 xG 1.21
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 0
487 Passes 301
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH İran vs Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İran squeezed past Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had İran as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, İran had 60% of the ball to Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri's 40%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.35 to 1.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, İran had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for İran and 0.17 for Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri.

What was the final score of İran vs Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri?

İran 2-1 Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri in the Asian Cup on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İran vs Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri?

Before kick-off our model rated a İran win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split İran 60%, draw 23%, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İran), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İran) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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