St. Johnstone 1-2 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 23 Feb 2025

St. Johnstone
1-2 HT 0-1
Hearts
📅23/02/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2024/2025

St. Johnstone vs Hearts Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.46
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
43%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.63
6+ Goals
10%
14.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 28% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.95
1/2
7%
24.3
1/X
8%
14.35
X/1
10%
7.76
X/2
16%
4.53
X/X
15%
4.75
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.59
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
25%
+2.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
43%
Away Win
48%
-5.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Johnstone v Hearts — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Johnstone EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 52%
-7% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -7%
1.00/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.32
-23% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +3%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
207 · 63% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 72%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.1
20.3 Crosses 21.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9

St. Johnstone vs Hearts Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Johnstone
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Hearts
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.02 xG 1.19
46% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
330 Passes 357
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.12.2024 Hearts Hearts 2-1 HT 1-0 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKP
02.11.2024 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 1-2 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
07.02.2024 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 0-1 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
25.11.2023 Hearts Hearts 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKP
05.08.2023 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 0-2 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
04.03.2023 Hearts Hearts 3-0 HT 1-0 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKP

St. Johnstone 1-2 Hearts — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Johnstone
1-2
AWAY Hearts
2.02 xG 2.18
58% Ball Possession 42%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
394 Passes 267
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
11 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH St. Johnstone vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts squeezed past St. Johnstone 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hearts as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, St. Johnstone had 58% of the ball to Hearts's 42%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 2.02 to 2.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hearts led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for St. Johnstone and 1.83 for Hearts.

What was the final score of St. Johnstone vs Hearts?

St. Johnstone 1-2 Hearts in the Scotland - Premiership on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Johnstone vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split St. Johnstone 28%, draw 29%, Hearts 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hearts) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hearts) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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