AGF Aarhus 4-0 Aalborg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 23 Feb 2025

AGF Aarhus
4-0 HT 1-0
Aalborg
📅23/02/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Denmark - Süperlig – 2024/2025

AGF Aarhus vs Aalborg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
12.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.9
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.15
X/1
15%
3.91
X/2
7%
11.6
X/X
8%
5.6
2/1
6%
23.0
2/2
8%
9.8
2/X EV+ ✗
8%
18.3
Value flag · 2/X at 18.3 — our 8% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
61%
-5.0pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.5pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+3.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.0pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AGF Aarhus v Aalborg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Aalborg EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.78/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.64
-5% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
390 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
24.6 Crosses 17.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

AGF Aarhus vs Aalborg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Aalborg
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.52 xG 0.56
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
299 Passes 321
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.08.2024 Aalborg Aalborg 0-4 HT 0-3 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
17.02.2023 Aalborg Aalborg 0-1 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
17.09.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 3-1 HT 0-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
18.10.2021 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 1-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
08.08.2021 Aalborg Aalborg 2-0 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
09.07.2021 Aalborg Aalborg 1-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus HAZ

AGF Aarhus 4-0 Aalborg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
4-0
AWAY Aalborg
2.97 xG 0.29
48% Ball Possession 52%
23 Total Shots 2
10 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
312 Passes 347
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
33 Box Touches 7
28 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Aalborg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus swept aside Aalborg 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AGF Aarhus as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 48% of the ball to Aalborg's 52%, shots finished 23-2, expected goals 2.97 to 0.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AGF Aarhus and 0.67 for Aalborg.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Aalborg?

AGF Aarhus 4-0 Aalborg in the Denmark - Süperlig on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Aalborg?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 56%, draw 24%, Aalborg 20%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AGF Aarhus) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DAN More Denmark - Süperlig
23 Feb 2025
16:00 FC Nordsjaelland vs SonderjyskE Analysis →
18:00 Vejle vs Brondby Analysis →
20:00 Kopenhag vs Midtjylland Analysis →