MVV Maastricht 1-4 ADO Den Haag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 23 Feb 2025

MVV Maastricht
1-4 HT 0-4
ADO Den Haag
📅23/02/2025 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

MVV Maastricht vs ADO Den Haag Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.8
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
33%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.38
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
2.72
6+ Goals
15%
7.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
4.35
1/2
6%
22.55
1/X
7%
12.15
X/1
9%
6.94
X/2
10%
5.49
X/X
9%
5.29
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
28.0
2/2
17%
3.01
2/X
7%
11.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 12% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
32%
+12.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.1pp
33%
Away Win
42%
-9.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.1pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MVV Maastricht v ADO Den Haag — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 46%
+3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.28/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.24
+6% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 78%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
17.0 Crosses 21.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8

MVV Maastricht vs ADO Den Haag Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
2W-1D-3L
AWAY ADO Den Haag
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.20 xG 1.95
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
318 Passes 322
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 31
10 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.12.2024 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-0 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
23.02.2024 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-2 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
29.09.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-3 HT 0-3 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
13.01.2023 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-1 HT 1-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
19.08.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-1 HT 2-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
11.02.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-3 HT 0-2 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2

MVV Maastricht 1-4 ADO Den Haag — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
1-4
AWAY ADO Den Haag
1.03 xG 1.95
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 1
342 Passes 321
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs ADO Den Haag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ADO Den Haag swept aside MVV Maastricht 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-4. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was MVV Maastricht at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 53% of the ball to ADO Den Haag's 47%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 1.03 to 1.95.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, ADO Den Haag led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for MVV Maastricht and 2.00 for ADO Den Haag.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs ADO Den Haag?

MVV Maastricht 1-4 ADO Den Haag in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs ADO Den Haag?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 44%, draw 23%, ADO Den Haag 33%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (MVV Maastricht) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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