AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.3
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
16%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.21
Over 2.5
56%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.18
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
28%
2.87
6+ Goals
12%
8.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.49
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
21.2
X/1
24%
3.71
X/2
7%
18.85
X/X
9%
7.48
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
5%
16.75
2/X
5%
25.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
72%
-10.4pp
22%
Draw
17%
+4.3pp
17%
Away Win
10%
+6.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.1pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
2.22/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/2.15
-3% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -1%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
463 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 73%
35.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
20.2 Crosses 11.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.62 xG 1.24
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
492 Passes 312
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
17.02.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-2 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
01.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
16.04.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-3 HT 0-2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
22.01.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-1 HT 2-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
16.01.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1-0
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
1.61 xG 0.61
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 1
383 Passes 330
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
39 Box Touches 19
9 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar edged past Fortuna Sittard 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 53% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 47%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.61 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.67 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard?

AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 62%, draw 22%, Fortuna Sittard 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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