Leixoes 1-1 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.54
Over 2.5
45%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
4.83
6+ Goals
8%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-1.6pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.1pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
61%
-5.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
39%
+5.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.7pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leixoes EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 38%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.21/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.30
-10% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.8 Crosses 24.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leixoes
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Alverca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.39 xG 0.19
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 8
400 Passes 224
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
31 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.09.2024 Alverca Alverca 1-1 HT 1-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leixoes
1-1
AWAY Alverca
1.28 xG 1.76
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 11
191 Passes 368
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Leixoes vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leixoes and Alverca couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 30% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Leixoes had 35% of the ball to Alverca's 65%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.28 to 1.76.

What was the final score of Leixoes vs Alverca?

Leixoes 1-1 Alverca in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leixoes vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Leixoes 34%, draw 30%, Alverca 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alverca), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alverca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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