Alverca 1-1 Leixoes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
43%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.59
Over 2.5
41%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.47
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
4.82
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
22%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
34%
-5.9pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
43%
Away Win
37%
+6.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.5pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alverca EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Leixoes EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +17%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +31%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
283 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 16.6
Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alverca
1-1
AWAY Leixoes
0.19 xG 1.39
41% Ball Possession 59%
4 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 12
224 Passes 400
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Crosses 31
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Alverca vs Leixoes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca and Leixoes shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Leixoes at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Alverca had 41% of the ball to Leixoes's 59%, shots finished 4-14, expected goals 0.19 to 1.39.

What was the final score of Alverca vs Leixoes?

Alverca 1-1 Leixoes in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alverca vs Leixoes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leixoes win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Alverca 28%, draw 29%, Leixoes 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Leixoes), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leixoes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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