Uniao De Leiria 1-1 Maritimo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 29 Sep 2024

Uniao De Leiria
1-1 HT 0-1
Maritimo
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Uniao De Leiria vs Maritimo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.71
Over 2.5
50%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.84
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
4.11
6+ Goals
10%
19.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.11 — our 24% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
55%
-4.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
45%
+4.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.2pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Uniao De Leiria v Maritimo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Maritimo EU Bookmakers 33%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.58/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/1.31
+15% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +58% / -32%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
19.6 Crosses 19.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7

Uniao De Leiria vs Maritimo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Maritimo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.83 xG 2.54
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 9
308 Passes 410
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.03.2024 Maritimo Maritimo 2-0 HT 1-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
10.01.2024 Maritimo Maritimo 0-3 HT 0-2 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POK
05.11.2023 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 4-3 HT 3-2 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
24.02.2012 Maritimo Maritimo 1-0 HT 0-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
18.09.2011 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-3 HT 0-2 Maritimo Maritimo POR
01.04.2011 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-3 HT 0-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR

Uniao De Leiria 1-1 Maritimo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
1-1
AWAY Maritimo
1.67 xG 1.58
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
314 Passes 216
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Maritimo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria and Maritimo couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Uniao De Leiria at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 55% of the ball to Maritimo's 45%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.67 to 1.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Uniao De Leiria and 2.00 for Maritimo.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Maritimo?

Uniao De Leiria 1-1 Maritimo in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Maritimo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 42%, draw 28%, Maritimo 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✓ BTTS Yes
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