Brackley Town 1-0 Alfreton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.04
Away
37%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.52
Over 2.5
38%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
39%
2.32
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
5.22
6+ Goals
8%
32.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.32 — our 39% vs market 36.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.3pp
24%
Draw
30%
-5.2pp
37%
Away Win
28%
+8.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.7pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brackley Town EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 32%
+11% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.35/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.53
-6% / +80% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
321 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brackley Town
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Alfreton Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Brackley Town Brackley Town İCON
29.04.2023 Brackley Town Brackley Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
24.09.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Brackley Town Brackley Town İCON
22.03.2022 Brackley Town Brackley Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
21.08.2021 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Brackley Town Brackley Town İCON
10.11.2020 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Brackley Town Brackley Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brackley Town
1-0
AWAY Alfreton Town
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 3
3 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brackley Town vs Alfreton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brackley Town nicked a narrow win over Alfreton Town 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 24% / 37% — and on the day Brackley Town made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Brackley Town had 54% of the ball to Alfreton Town's 46%, shots finished 11-3.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brackley Town had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Brackley Town and 0.33 for Alfreton Town.

What was the final score of Brackley Town vs Alfreton Town?

Brackley Town 1-0 Alfreton Town in the England - Conference on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brackley Town vs Alfreton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brackley Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Brackley Town 39%, draw 24%, Alfreton Town 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brackley Town), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brackley Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İCON More England - Conference
23 Mar 2024
15:30 Kings Lynn Town vs Tamworth Analysis →
18:00 Bishops Stortford vs Scarborough Athletic Analysis →
18:00 Dover Athletic vs Farnborough Analysis →
18:00 Slough Town vs Eastbourne Borough Analysis →
18:00 Spennymoor Town vs Gloucester City Analysis →
18:00 Taunton Town vs Chelmsford City Analysis →