Hereford FC 4-1 Farsley AFC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
28%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.77
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.21
6+ Goals
7%
20.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 33% vs market 30.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
57%
-11.0pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+9.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.2pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hereford FC EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Farsley AFC EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +15%
1.13/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.72
-38% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
372 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hereford FC
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Farsley AFC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
25.11.2023 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC 0-0 HT 0-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
04.02.2023 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC 1-0 HT 1-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
10.01.2023 Hereford FC Hereford FC 2-0 HT 2-0 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC İCON
22.01.2022 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC 0-4 HT 0-1 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
14.08.2021 Hereford FC Hereford FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC İCON
07.03.2020 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC 1-2 HT 0-1 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hereford FC
4-1
AWAY Farsley AFC
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hereford FC vs Farsley AFC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hereford FC cruised past Farsley AFC 4-1. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hereford FC as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hereford FC had 54% of the ball to Farsley AFC's 46%, shots finished 13-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hereford FC had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hereford FC and 0.50 for Farsley AFC.

What was the final score of Hereford FC vs Farsley AFC?

Hereford FC 4-1 Farsley AFC in the England - Conference on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hereford FC vs Farsley AFC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hereford FC win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Hereford FC 46%, draw 26%, Farsley AFC 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hereford FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hereford FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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