Southport 2-2 Buxton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.74
Over
53%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2.89
2-3
37%
1.77
4-5
27%
4.04
6+
10%
18.8
Value flag · 4-5 at 4.04 — our 27% vs market 19.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.6pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
42%
Away Win
40%
+1.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
54%
-7.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
46%
+7.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.0pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southport The Market 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Buxton The Market 45%
-5% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.05/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/0.97
-20% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +34%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
219 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 454 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southport
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Buxton
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Buxton Buxton 0-1 HT 0-1 Southport Southport İCON
18.02.2023 Buxton Buxton 1-0 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
29.10.2022 Southport Southport 1-4 HT 0-1 Buxton Buxton İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southport
2-2
AWAY Buxton
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Southport vs Buxton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southport and Buxton shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Buxton at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Southport had 44% of the ball to Buxton's 56%, shots finished 14-6.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Buxton led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Southport and 1.67 for Buxton.

What was the final score of Southport vs Buxton?

Southport 2-2 Buxton in the England - Conference on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southport vs Buxton?

Before kick-off our model rated an Buxton win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Southport 32%, draw 26%, Buxton 42%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Buxton) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Buxton) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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