Greenock Morton 0-1 Dunfermline Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.23
6+ Goals
9%
20.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.76 — our 34% vs market 30.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.16
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1
14%
4.63
X/2
13%
6.24
X/X
15%
4.24
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
8%
4.8
2/X
8%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.3pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.1pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greenock Morton EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Dunfermline Athletic EU Bookmakers 33%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.58/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.36
+4% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
Crosses 17.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greenock Morton
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Dunfermline Athletic
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.33 xG 1.55
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
149 Passes 455
55% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 40
8 Crosses 38
1 Yellow Cards 0
03.02.2024 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 0-5 HT 0-2 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
03.11.2023 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 1-2 HT 0-2 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKCL
23.09.2023 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 3-1 HT 2-0 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
18.03.2022 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 1-1 HT 0-1 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
08.01.2022 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 5-0 HT 3-0 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKCL
06.11.2021 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 1-3 HT 1-1 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greenock Morton
0-1
AWAY Dunfermline Athletic
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 9
4 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Greenock Morton vs Dunfermline Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dunfermline Athletic squeezed past Greenock Morton 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 32% / 28% — and on the day Dunfermline Athletic made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Greenock Morton had 60% of the ball to Dunfermline Athletic's 40%, shots finished 7-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Greenock Morton had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Greenock Morton and 1.17 for Dunfermline Athletic.

What was the final score of Greenock Morton vs Dunfermline Athletic?

Greenock Morton 0-1 Dunfermline Athletic in the Scotland - Championship on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greenock Morton vs Dunfermline Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Greenock Morton win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Greenock Morton 40%, draw 32%, Dunfermline Athletic 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Greenock Morton) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Greenock Morton) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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