Villarreal II 1-2 Leganes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.52
Over 2.5
34%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.06
No
62%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.26
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
15%
5.42
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.26 — our 39% vs market 37.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.6
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.5
X/1
15%
5.72
X/2
14%
4.84
X/X
18%
3.62
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.64
2/X
6%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-1.4pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.2pp
38%
Away Win
38%
+0.2pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+4.4pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-4.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.4pp
62%
BTTS No
56%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal II EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Leganes EU Bookmakers 42%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -6%
1.28/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/0.88
-18% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
15.0 Crosses 20.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal II
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Leganes
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.58 xG 1.19
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
420 Passes 325
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2023 Leganes Leganes 1-0 HT 0-0 Villarreal II Villarreal II İS2
16.04.2023 Leganes Leganes 1-0 HT 1-0 Villarreal II Villarreal II İS2
03.12.2022 Villarreal II Villarreal II 0-0 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal II
1-2
AWAY Leganes
0.48 xG 2.56
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 3
395 Passes 379
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 34
8 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Villarreal II vs Leganes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leganes edged past Villarreal II 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 30% / 31% / 38% — and on the day Leganes made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Villarreal II had 51% of the ball to Leganes's 49%, shots finished 7-19, expected goals 0.48 to 2.56 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Leganes's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Leganes led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Villarreal II and 0.67 for Leganes.

What was the final score of Villarreal II vs Leganes?

Villarreal II 1-2 Leganes in the Spain - 2nd Division on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal II vs Leganes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leganes win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Villarreal II 30%, draw 31%, Leganes 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leganes) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leganes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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