Real Valladolid II 3-4 RC Deportivo Fabril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Valladolid II EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY RC Deportivo Fabril EU Bookmakers 30%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.29/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.21
+3% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +65% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
313 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 188 · 63%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Valladolid II
1W-0D-0L
AWAY RC Deportivo Fabril
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2023 RC Deportivo Fabril RC Deportivo Fabril 2-3 HT 1-1 Real Valladolid II Real Valladolid II İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Valladolid II
3-4
AWAY RC Deportivo Fabril
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Real Valladolid II vs RC Deportivo Fabril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RC Deportivo Fabril nicked a narrow win over Real Valladolid II 4-3 away from home. It was 3-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Real Valladolid II at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Real Valladolid II had 43% of the ball to RC Deportivo Fabril's 57%, shots finished 18-11.

What was the final score of Real Valladolid II vs RC Deportivo Fabril?

Real Valladolid II 3-4 RC Deportivo Fabril in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Valladolid II vs RC Deportivo Fabril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Valladolid II win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Real Valladolid II 44%, draw 27%, RC Deportivo Fabril 29%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Real Valladolid II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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