Mainz 05 II 2-3 Lehnerz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.47
Draw
33%
3.28
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
21%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
37%
-4.0pp
34%
Draw
27%
+6.5pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-2.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.6pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Lehnerz EU Bookmakers 40%
-9% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -16%
1.37/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.60
-7% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
238 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05 II
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Lehnerz
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.09.2023 Lehnerz Lehnerz 2-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
10.12.2022 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-1 HT 0-1 Lehnerz Lehnerz ALMBÖL
20.08.2022 Lehnerz Lehnerz 1-3 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05 II
2-3
AWAY Lehnerz
29% Ball Possession 71%
4 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 II vs Lehnerz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lehnerz edged past Mainz 05 II 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 34% / 34%) promised a tight game; Lehnerz found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mainz 05 II had 29% of the ball to Lehnerz's 71%, shots finished 4-19.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Mainz 05 II and 1.33 for Lehnerz.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 II vs Lehnerz?

Mainz 05 II 2-3 Lehnerz in the Germany - Regional League on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 II vs Lehnerz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lehnerz win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 II 33%, draw 34%, Lehnerz 34%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (33/34/34) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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