SGV Freiberg 2-0 Astoria Walldorf — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.6pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Astoria Walldorf EU Bookmakers 30%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
1.07/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.71
-42% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
357 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SGV Freiberg
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Astoria Walldorf
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.09.2023 Astoria Walldorf Astoria Walldorf 1-2 HT 1-1 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
18.03.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-1 HT 0-0 Astoria Walldorf Astoria Walldorf ALMBÖL
09.09.2022 Astoria Walldorf Astoria Walldorf 3-1 HT 2-1 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SGV Freiberg
2-0
AWAY Astoria Walldorf
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH SGV Freiberg vs Astoria Walldorf
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SGV Freiberg saw off Astoria Walldorf 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had SGV Freiberg as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, SGV Freiberg had 53% of the ball to Astoria Walldorf's 47%, shots finished 14-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for SGV Freiberg and 1.67 for Astoria Walldorf.

What was the final score of SGV Freiberg vs Astoria Walldorf?

SGV Freiberg 2-0 Astoria Walldorf in the Germany - Regional League on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SGV Freiberg vs Astoria Walldorf?

Before kick-off our model rated a SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split SGV Freiberg 44%, draw 27%, Astoria Walldorf 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SGV Freiberg), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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