Tuen Mun SA 1-7 Citizen AA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒08:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
9.57
Draw
22%
5.71
Away
61%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
Over 2.5
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
5%
X/2
21%
X/X
5%
2/1
4%
2/2
32%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
7%
+9.9pp
22%
Draw
14%
+8.3pp
61%
Away Win
79%
-18.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.6pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tuen Mun SA EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Citizen AA EU Bookmakers 84%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.26/3.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.35/1.83
+14% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -43%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
272 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 504 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tuen Mun SA
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Citizen AA
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
03.11.2024 Citizen AA Citizen AA 2-2 Tuen Mun SA Tuen Mun SA HK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tuen Mun SA
1-7
AWAY Citizen AA
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 29
4 Shots on Target 16
2 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tuen Mun SA vs Citizen AA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Citizen AA cruised past Tuen Mun SA 7-1 away from home. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Citizen AA as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 7-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Tuen Mun SA had 38% of the ball to Citizen AA's 62%, shots finished 8-29.

What was the final score of Tuen Mun SA vs Citizen AA?

Tuen Mun SA 1-7 Citizen AA in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tuen Mun SA vs Citizen AA?

Before kick-off our model rated an Citizen AA win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Tuen Mun SA 17%, draw 22%, Citizen AA 61%. The final score 1-7 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Citizen AA), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Citizen AA) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HK2 More Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division
23 Mar 2025
08:30 Shatin SA vs South China Analysis →
08:30 Yuen Long vs 3 Sing Analysis →
10:30 Sham Shui Po vs Eastern District Analysis →
10:30 WSE vs Central & Western Analysis →