Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 Sagamihara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.71
Over 2.5
50%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+3.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
55%
-4.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
45%
+4.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.6pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagamihara EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.50/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.18
+12% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
338 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.0 Crosses 17.1
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Sagamihara
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
299 Passes 278
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.08.2024 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 3-2 HT 2-1 Sagamihara Sagamihara JAP3
22.06.2024 Sagamihara Sagamihara 3-2 HT 0-2 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
28.10.2023 Sagamihara Sagamihara 0-2 HT 0-2 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
03.06.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 5-3 HT 2-0 Sagamihara Sagamihara JAP3
20.11.2022 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 0-0 Sagamihara Sagamihara JAP3
03.04.2022 Sagamihara Sagamihara 1-4 HT 1-2 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
2-0
AWAY Sagamihara
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 0
284 Passes 351
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga beat Sagamihara 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Matsumoto Yamaga as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 45% of the ball to Sagamihara's 55%, shots finished 10-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Matsumoto Yamaga had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.50 for Sagamihara.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara?

Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 Sagamihara in the Japan - J3 League on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 42%, draw 26%, Sagamihara 33%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✗ BTTS Yes
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