Baden 0-1 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 23 Apr 2024

Baden
0-1 HT 0-0
Aarau
📅23/04/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.38
Over 2.5
49%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.49
No
48%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
5.02
2-3 Goals
37%
1.96
4-5 Goals
24%
2.75
6+ Goals
12%
7.21
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
22%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+2.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-4.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
38%
+13.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
62%
-13.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
63%
-10.7pp
48%
BTTS No
37%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baden EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 50%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +12%
1.04/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.79
-13% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -18%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
339 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 78%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
18.9 Crosses 14.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baden
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Aarau
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.88 xG 1.48
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
233 Passes 339
69% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
16.03.2024 Aarau Aarau 2-0 HT 0-0 Baden Baden İSV2
30.01.2024 Baden Baden 1-2 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
21.07.2023 Aarau Aarau 1-0 HT 1-0 Baden Baden İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baden
0-1
AWAY Aarau
0.81 xG 1.94
33% Ball Possession 67%
18 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
247 Passes 571
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 33
16 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Baden vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarau squeezed past Baden 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Aarau as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Baden had 33% of the ball to Aarau's 67%, shots finished 18-17, expected goals 0.81 to 1.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Aarau led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Baden and 1.67 for Aarau.

What was the final score of Baden vs Aarau?

Baden 0-1 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 23/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baden vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Baden 31%, draw 26%, Aarau 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aarau), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aarau) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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