Arsenal 2-2 Crystal Palace — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 23 Apr 2025

Arsenal
2-2 HT 2-1
Crystal Palace
📅23/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
9%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.65 — our 29% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.72
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
10%
18.15
X/1
22%
3.85
X/2
7%
14.75
X/X
9%
6.27
2/1
7%
23.3
2/2
10%
12.85
2/X
6%
21.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
66%
-13.7pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.1pp
23%
Away Win
13%
+9.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Crystal Palace — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 16%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +11%
1.88/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.91
+3% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -5%
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
503 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 73%
38.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
21.1 Crosses 12.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Crystal Palace
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.10 xG 0.89
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
456 Passes 314
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
37 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.12.2024 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-5 HT 1-3 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
18.12.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 3-2 HT 0-1 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNLK
20.01.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 5-0 HT 2-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
21.08.2023 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
19.03.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 4-1 HT 2-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
05.08.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-2 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

Arsenal 2-2 Crystal Palace — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
2-2
AWAY Crystal Palace
1.18 xG 1.81
68% Ball Possession 32%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
656 Passes 271
92% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal and Crystal Palace couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Arsenal had 68% of the ball to Crystal Palace's 32%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.18 to 1.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Arsenal and 0.67 for Crystal Palace.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?

Arsenal 2-2 Crystal Palace in the England - Premier League on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 53%, draw 25%, Crystal Palace 23%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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